Trump's Coalition Crumbles: Key Voter Groups Turn Against Second Term Performance

A devastating new AP-NORC poll reveals that Donald Trump's carefully constructed 2024 coalition is rapidly unraveling, with critical demographic groups expressing deep dissatisfaction with his second-term performance. The survey of over 2,500 Americans paints a troubling picture for the 47th president as economic pressures and policy disappointments erode support among the very voters who helped return him to the White House.

Hispanic Support Collapses

Perhaps most striking is the dramatic collapse in Hispanic support for Trump. His approval rating among Hispanic adults has plummeted 16 percentage points since March 2025, falling from 40% to just 25% in the latest polling. This represents a catastrophic erosion of support from a demographic that showed surprising movement toward Trump in the 2024 election.

The decline appears directly linked to Trump's immigration policies, with only 25% of Hispanics approving of his immigration approach—down from 36% at the beginning of his term. Young Hispanic adults are particularly disenchanted, with a mere 18% approving of his immigration performance, compared to 40% of Americans overall.

"This isn't just about gas prices or Iran," the polling data suggests. The discontent has been building since late 2025, indicating deeper structural problems with Trump's approach to governing rather than temporary economic headwinds.

Young Voters Abandon Ship

Americans under 45 are also fleeing Trump's coalition in significant numbers. His approval among this demographic has crashed from 39% to 28% over the past year—a devastating 11-point drop that threatens Republican electoral prospects for years to come.

Young women are leading the exodus, with only 20% approving of Trump's economic handling. The numbers are even worse among young Hispanic women, where just 7% approve of his economic approach. Even among young men—a group Trump specifically courted—only 30% approve of his economic performance.

Male Support Softens

Trump's vaunted appeal to male voters is also showing cracks. Overall male approval has declined from 47% at the start of his second term to 38% currently. This is particularly concerning given Trump's targeted outreach to men throughout his 2024 campaign.

Black men, who showed some movement toward Trump in 2024, appear especially disillusioned. Only 10% approve of his handling of the cost of living, and roughly 20% approve of his economic approach. Hispanic men aren't much more supportive, with only 30% approving of his overall performance.

MAGA Base Holds, But Cracks Appear

While Trump's core MAGA supporters remain largely loyal—with 90% approval ratings—this represents only about half of all Republicans. Non-MAGA Republicans show significantly lower approval at just 44%, revealing fractures within the GOP itself.

Even among his base, there are warning signs. Only about half of Republicans overall approve of Trump's approach to the cost of living, and a majority of Republicans under 45 actually disapprove of him on this critical issue.

Economic Pressures Drive Discontent

The polling was conducted as oil prices fluctuated due to the Iran conflict, driving up gas prices and highlighting economic vulnerabilities. However, the data suggests these recent events have merely accelerated longer-term trends of declining confidence in Trump's economic stewardship.

Few Hispanic adults—only about 20%—describe the nation's economy as "good," and similar numbers approve of Trump's cost-of-living policies. These economic concerns appear to be the primary driver of Trump's declining support across demographic groups.

Electoral Implications

These polling numbers represent a political earthquake for Trump and the Republican Party. The groups showing the steepest declines—Hispanics, young adults, and men—were crucial to Trump's 2024 victory. Their alienation could have profound consequences for Republican electoral prospects, particularly in competitive swing states with large Hispanic populations.

With Trump's overall approval sliding across key demographics while economic pressures mount, the president faces a critical test of his political durability. The question now is whether these trends represent temporary setbacks or fundamental shifts that could reshape American politics heading into the midterms and beyond.